Pakistan's IT Exports Hit a Record. I'm Still Worried About AI.

Pakistan’s IT exports just hit a record, and I’m still worried.

I know how that sounds. Every year our government announces the percentage growth in IT exports, and every year we clap, and honestly, this year we should clap too. But I run a software company in Karachi, I use AI every single day (some would say too much, I’ve written about that too), and what I’m seeing underneath the headline number doesn’t match the celebration.

How much did Pakistan earn from IT exports in FY26?

Pakistan’s IT exports reached a record $4.6 billion in FY26, which ran from July 2025 to June 2026. That’s up about 21% from $3.8 billion the year before, according to State Bank of Pakistan data reported by Business Recorder. It still fell short of the government’s own $5 billion target, but a record is a record.

Freelancers did even better. They brought in a record $1.76 billion in FY26, up 78% from $984 million the year before, and IT freelancers alone made up more than $1.16 billion of that (Profit by Pakistan Today).

So if you only read the headlines, everything is fine. Better than fine, actually.

Is AI really hurting Pakistan’s freelancers and software houses?

AI is hurting Pakistan’s freelancers and software houses at the bottom of the ladder first, even while the total money keeps growing. You have to look one layer down to see it.

A 2026 report by the Pakistan Software Houses Association (P@SHA), cited by Arab News in August 2026, found that entry-level hiring at major tech companies had fallen by around 25%, and that entry-level freelance projects dropped from about 15% of listings to below 9%.

And it’s not just us saying it. Fiverr, in its own second quarter 2026 results, reported 2.7 million active buyers, down almost 22% in a year, and cut its forecast because of “AI-related demand and traffic headwinds” and weakness in the categories most exposed to AI automation. That’s the platform itself saying it, not some doom post on Twitter.

Anyone who has actually built something with AI (not just asked it for a caption, actually shipped something with it) can see why. Freelance software development, cheap logo design, selling ebooks, all those shortcuts famous influencers keep packaging into courses and selling to our kids, AI does most of that now, faster and nearly free. So many of my friends who run software houses have already felt it in the last few months.

So the money is going up, and the door for beginners is closing at the same time. Both things are true. The people who already have the skills, the clients and the reputation are earning more than ever. The ones trying to get their first order are finding there are fewer orders to get.

Why does the entry level matter so much for Pakistan?

The entry level matters for Pakistan because the country is overwhelmingly young, and almost everyone enters tech through that first junior seat or first freelance order. More than 60% of Pakistan is under 30 (Aaj News, citing UNDP figures), and an estimated 2.3 million Pakistanis freelance online (Geo News).

Think about how most of us actually got in. The first freelance order that paid in dollars. The trainee seat at a software house where someone senior let you break things for six months. That was the ladder. If AI eats the first rung, these record numbers get earned by fewer and fewer people every year, and sooner or later the growth percentage we love to celebrate starts slowing down, not because the industry failed, but because nobody new could get in.

And here’s the part that bothers me most. A 22 year old in Karachi or Multan doesn’t read Fiverr’s earnings release. He or she sees an influencer promising that a course will make them rich on Upwork, pays for it, and walks straight into the exact categories that are shrinking fastest.

Is there still an opportunity in this?

Yes, and I genuinely mean that, this isn’t a reason to lose hope. Demand for AI skills on Upwork more than doubled in 2025, up 109% according to Upwork’s own in-demand skills research, and the people who learn to build with AI are getting paid more, not less. Fiverr says the same thing in its own way: fewer buyers, but each one spending more.

So the work isn’t disappearing, it’s moving up. The skill is no longer “I can make a logo” or “I can build a WordPress site”, it’s “I can take a messy business problem and solve it with these tools”. That’s learnable. Our young people are some of the hungriest learners I’ve ever worked with. New skills, new ways to adapt and move.

What should Pakistan’s government do about it?

Pakistan’s government should invest in the first rung of the tech ladder, juniors and first-time freelancers, and not just in buildings and export targets.

So a humble request to our officials. Opening new tech spaces and buying real estate in the best parts of Karachi is good, I mean it. But the buildings were never the hard part. Invest in the people who are supposed to fill them, the juniors who need that first step. Fund apprenticeships at real software houses, not just certificates. Teach building with AI, not just using it. And start measuring how many new people entered the industry this year, not only how many dollars came in.

Otherwise those spaces risk sitting empty while our young ones are busy worrying about survival.

I don’t have all the answers here, and I’d genuinely love to hear what you’d do differently.

Questions people ask

What were Pakistan’s IT exports in FY26? Pakistan’s IT exports were a record $4.6 billion in FY26 (July 2025 to June 2026), up about 21% from $3.8 billion in FY25, according to State Bank of Pakistan data. The government had targeted $5 billion for the year, so exports grew strongly but missed the target by roughly $400 million.

How much did Pakistani freelancers earn in FY26? Pakistani freelancers earned a record $1.76 billion in FY26, up 78% from $984 million in FY25, according to State Bank of Pakistan data. IT freelancers contributed more than $1.16 billion of that total, and non-IT freelancers nearly tripled their earnings to about $592 million.

Is AI reducing freelance jobs in Pakistan? AI is reducing entry-level freelance and junior tech work in Pakistan even as total earnings rise. A 2026 P@SHA report cited by Arab News found entry-level freelance projects fell from about 15% of listings to below 9%, while Fiverr reported in mid-2026 that its active buyers fell almost 22% in a year, citing AI-related headwinds.

Which freelance skills are growing because of AI? Skills that build with AI are growing. Upwork reported that demand for AI-related skills rose 109% in 2025, and Fiverr says spending per buyer is up even as buyer numbers fall. The work is shifting from simple tasks like basic logos and websites toward solving complete business problems with AI tools.

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As of October 2026. Expanded with AI from my own LinkedIn post, against the sources linked above, and edited by me.